Group D — Group Standings
Match schedule, current standings and our prediction for Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
United States
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 |
Australia
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 |
Paraguay
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 |
Turkey
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
Match Schedule
United States
4 - 1
Paraguay
Australia
2 - 0
Turkey
United States
2 - 0
Australia
Turkey
0 - 1
Paraguay
Turkey
3 - 2
United States
Paraguay
0 - 0
Australia
Our Prediction
Pre-Tournament Forecast
Race for 1st place
The hosts USA are the firmest pick for first place in Group D, with a deeply favourable schedule, unprecedented home crowd support, and a settled core under Mauricio Pochettino. Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Folarin Balogun give the USMNT enough top-five-league quality to beat Australia, Paraguay and probably also Turkey. The pivotal match is matchday 2 vs. Turkey at SoFi Stadium — an American win likely seals first; a Turkish win turns it into a final-day shootout.
Race for 2nd place
Turkey are the most likely runners-up. Vincenzo Montella has assembled a stylish, technically gifted team around Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, with Premier League and Serie A experience throughout the spine. Turkey should beat both Australia and Paraguay, leaving the USA fixture as the decider for first place. Even with a defeat to the hosts, six points ensures second place comfortably.
Third-place playoff slot
Australia are the most likely team to claim the third-place playoff slot, edging out Paraguay through tournament experience. Tony Popovic's Socceroos lack stars but are well-organised, defensively resilient and have a clear plan: take points off Paraguay on matchday 1, play for a draw against the USA, and try to upset Turkey. Four points is the realistic ceiling — likely enough for one of the eight best-thirds places.
Bottom of the group
Paraguay are the most likely group bottom. Gustavo Alfaro's Albirroja qualified surprisingly well from CONMEBOL, but the team is young, lacks a top-European-league spine, and faces three teams with significantly better squads. The opening match vs. Australia is their only realistic chance for points; defeats in the other two games are highly likely.
Updated After Matchday 1
Group D took an unexpected turn after Matchday 1: the United States thrashed Paraguay and Australia delivered the matchday's biggest shock by comfortably beating Turkey. The Americans looked formidable at home — attacking combinations, all-pitch pressure, and zero finishing problems. Turkey, meanwhile, flopped at kickoff: tactical setup never clicked, and Australia's press denied Çalhanoğlu space in midfield. The decider becomes USA–Australia on 19 June: the winner practically guarantees first place, the loser keeps their chances alive only via their head-to-head with Turkey. Paraguay and Turkey now need more than three points — they need a serious tactical reset, or both will be heading home after the group stage.
Updated After Matchday 2
The United States are through: a composed 2–0 win over Australia made it two from two and secured top spot in Group D with a game to spare. Behind them the picture is tight — Paraguay revived their campaign by beating Turkey 1–0, pulling level with Australia on three points. That sets up a straight knockout: Paraguay–Australia on 25 June, winner takes second, with goal difference potentially decisive if it ends level. Turkey, pointless and goalless from two games, are all but eliminated and would need to beat the USA and hope other results collapse. Their tournament has been a deep disappointment given the pre-tournament hype around Çalhanoğlu and Güler. The likeliest finish: USA win the group, and the Paraguay–Australia winner grabs the runner-up spot.