Group L — Group Standings

Race for 1st place

England under Thomas Tuchel are the firmest favourites to top Group L. The German coach inherits the most talented attacking generation in English football history — Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford — and Tuchel's tactical clarity should fix the rigid build-up issues that hampered Southgate. England should beat Panama and Ghana comfortably; the decider is Croatia on matchday 2, a fixture England have struggled in historically.

Race for 2nd place

Croatia are the most likely runners-up, even with their core ageing. Zlatko Dalić's veteran spine — Luka Modrić (in his final tournament at 40), Mateo Kovačić, Joško Gvardiol, Ivan Perišić — has reached three of the last four World Cup latter rounds (2018 final, 2022 third place, 2024 Euros quarters). Croatia should comfortably beat Panama and Ghana; a draw or narrow defeat to England leaves them on 6–7 points and second place.

Third-place playoff slot

Ghana are the favourites for the third-place playoff slot. Otto Addo has rebuilt the Black Stars around Mohammed Kudus, Iñaki Williams, Antoine Semenyo and Thomas Partey, all Premier League regulars. The path: defeats to England and Croatia, a clear win over Panama — three points should secure a best-third place. Ghana's biggest risk is dropping points to Panama in what is essentially a six-pointer.

Bottom of the group

Panama are the most likely group bottom. Thomas Christiansen's squad qualified through CONCACAF's third route and lacks the European-league core needed to genuinely threaten Ghana, let alone England or Croatia. The realistic ceiling is a draw against Ghana; defeats in the other two games are highly probable.