Group I — Group Standings

Pre-Tournament Forecast

Race for 1st place

France remain co-favourites for the entire tournament and will not let first place slip in Group I. Didier Deschamps' last World Cup as coach features Kylian Mbappé in his prime, with Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Ousmane Dembélé providing midfield and wide quality. France should beat Iraq comfortably, dispatch Norway, and overcome Senegal — maximum points is realistic. The only fixture with any intrigue is matchday 2 vs. Senegal, a 2002-style upset risk for veterans of the famous result.

Race for 2nd place

Senegal are the firmest pick for second place. Pape Thiaw's reign continues the African champion's foundations, with Sadio Mané (still influential), Kalidou Koulibaly, Édouard Mendy and Krépin Diatta forming a tournament-experienced spine. Senegal should beat Iraq, push France hard and edge Norway through superior tournament rhythm. Six points and second place is the realistic outcome.

Third-place playoff slot

Norway are the favourites for the third-place playoff slot in a fiercely competitive group. Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard finally make their World Cup debuts after 28 years of national absence, and Ståle Solbakken has built a tactically modern 4-3-3 around them. Norway should beat Iraq comfortably, lose to France, and play Senegal close — 3 or 4 points should be enough for one of the eight best-thirds places.

Bottom of the group

Iraq are the most likely group bottom. Graham Arnold's squad arrived through the punishing AFC playoff route and lacks the quality to compete with three top-30 European/African sides. The realistic ceiling is a single point from Norway on a defensive masterclass day — defeats in the other two games are highly probable.

Updated After Matchday 1

Group I shaped up exactly as forecast: France and Norway both won convincingly and will essentially decide first place in their head-to-head on 26 June. Norway, with Haaland in form, ripped Iraq apart 4–1 and looked even more impressive than the French — their best start at a World Cup in decades. France took the usual three points against Senegal, though the coaching staff is still searching for the optimal attacking combination. Senegal and Iraq must now win everything in front of them to keep their hopes alive — both face Matchday 2 on 22 June in must-win mode. The decider remains France–Norway in the final round: that match alone will determine the group order.

Updated After Matchday 2

Group I has gone exactly to script — and produced its expected showdown. France beat Iraq 3–0 and Norway edged a spirited Senegal 3–2, leaving both European sides on a perfect six points and already through to the knockouts. Their meeting on 26 June is now a straight shoot-out for first place and a likely easier Round-of-32 draw; with Haaland in scintillating form, Norway will fancy their chances against a France side still fine-tuning its attack. Senegal and Iraq, both eliminated after two defeats, will contest a dead rubber for pride. The only real question left is the order at the top. The likeliest finish: France and Norway advance — as everyone predicted — with the group winner decided in a heavyweight final-round clash.